The 2008 Zimbabwe Elections:  A DREAM DEFERRED

“The fear and anxiety concerns the post-election process.  The most frequent comment from Zimbabweans and from those watching the process:  “Will the old man rig the election? Will the count be fair...?”  The fear of a stolen election and the possible outbreak of spontaneous violence have created a palpable anxiety throughout the country”

The preceding concludes a March 31 message from a member of the TransAfrica Forum/Africa Action Election Observer Mission to Zimbabwe.  As this report goes to press, the results of the election, which were marred by flawed voter rolls, voter intimidation and lack of transparency in vote tallying, have been announced following an unprecedented month-long delay.  However, the country’s political future remains unclear.  The results:

• Out of a 5.2 million eligible voters, approximately 42 percent voted.
• For the first time in 28 years the ZANU-PF governing party has lost control of the Parliament.  There were 207 House of Assembly seats contested; the combined opposition controls 109 seats, ZANU-PF 97, and 1 seat went to an independent.  
• In the Senate, there were 60 seats being contested; ZANU-PF took 30 seats, MDC’s Tsvangirai faction took 24 seats, and the MDC’s Mutambara faction got 6 seats.
• Morgan Tsvangirai defeated President Robert Mugabe in the presidential election, but not with enough votes to avoid a run off:  Morgan Tsvangirai - 47.9 percent, Robert Mugabe - 43.2 percent, and Simba Makoni - 8.3 percent.  Zimbabwe’s Electoral Act requires a 50 percent plus one vote majority for a candidate to be an outright winner; the law requires a runoff must take place within 21 days.

Any detailed post-election policy proposal risks being overtaken by events. In the most recent developments, the opposition party has decided to contest the presidential runoff, despite escalating violence, the failure to verify the long-delayed presidential vote count and their contention that they were deprived of a 50 percent-plus margin by fraud. The deadly violence, most of it attributed by observers to a decision by security authorities to intimidate the population into voting for President Mugabe, has already claimed at least 50 lives since the March 29 elections.  Thousands have been beaten and/or lost their homes and other properties; making grim the prospects for a free and fair runoff.  Whether a runoff election with any credibility is in fact possible, will depend on whether both internal and external pressure force security officials to desist from this systematic campaign of violent intimidation.

Recommendations

The Government of Zimbabwe must immediately end its campaign of violence against the political opposition, members of civil society and the human rights community, as well as ordinary citizens.    

The solution to Zimbabwe’s crisis rests with the people of Zimbabwe.  However, the international community, including the U.S. and the United Nations, clearly has an important role to play, particularly in ensuring the opening up of democratic space to allow unhindered participation by all Zimbabweans.  As such we encourage:  

1. The U.S. and the international community to support SADC’s ongoing mediation.  For this mediation to be meaningful and to ensure total adherence to the process and abidance by its outcomes the international community must be firm with both ZANU-PF and the MDC.
2. The U.S. and the international community to support African-led mediation designed to conceptualize and implement a transitional arrangement.
3. TransAfrica Forum and Africa Action acknowledge the complexity of conceptualizing and implementing a transitional arrangement in an environment characterized by acute political polarization. The challenges are:
   1. Legal – the constitution will have to be amended to accommodate a transitional arrangement.
   2. Justice and Accountability – a transitional arrangement by its very nature is a negotiated settlement that can sacrifice issues of justice and accountability. The growing demands to hold members of President Mugabe’s administration answerable for human rights abuses and corruption present a challenge to negotiating a political settlement. Largely because of these justice concerns grassroots sentiments within Zimbabwe are opposed to a transitional authority or government of national unity.
   3. Transformation - however the Zimbabwean crisis is defined it is clear that the solution requires a thorough transformation of the political culture and economic management systems. A negotiated settlement, by definition, limits the extent of such transformation– the preserved power of the status quo will limit true transformation in an effort to maintain the political and economic status quo that confers power on a few at the expense of the many.

From the foregoing it is obvious that a negotiated settlement is an inferior solution to Zimbabwe’s problems, however the current power dynamics within the country make it unavoidable. Principally because:  

1. ZANU-PF is still deeply entrenched – despite the fact that ZANU-PF lost the March 29 election it remains an entrenched entity that cannot be ignored.  Fierce loyalty amongst war veterans and the security forces—the Army, the Police, Secret Service and the Prison Services—provide pillars of support that tilt the power balance in ZANU-PF’s favor.  In addition the March 29 election results highlight the reality that, among the 42 percent that voted, vote distribution is nearly split in the middle for presidential, parliamentary and Senate elections;
2. The MDC party opposition does not seem to be pursuing any other option that can bring democratic pressure to bear on President Mugabe’s government.

Thus, at present, the only viable alternative to a transitional arrangement seems to be a ZANU-PF government. That reality, given what has transpired over the last two months, can only increase the suffering of ordinary people and potentially lead to intense violence, even civil war.

Conceiving the Transitional Arrangement:

1. While the fine details of any arrangement must be worked out by Zimbabweans themselves, there are important elements that need to be emphasized:
   1. The transitional arrangement should be time limited to no more than two years. This is an important difference between a Transitional Authority and a Government of National Unity. A Transitional Authority is a clearly time limited, short term arrangement, whereas a Government of National Unity is generally a long term arrangement.
   2. The mandate of the transitional authority must be clearly spelt out from the beginning. The main task must be to create an environment that allows for a free and fair election and for the unhindered transfer of power to the winning party. Key to this is:
      1. A democratic constitution
      2. Democratization and professionalization of state institutions, most importantly, the security forces, the Judiciary and the Electoral Commission.
      3. Arresting the socio-economic collapse, principally by stabilizing the Zimbabwe dollar, curbing inflation, stemming corruption, solving food shortages and restoring industrial and agricultural productivity.
2. The international community, in particular the nations of Southern Africa, should provide material and political support for a process of national reconciliation.
3. The international community must continue to encourage and support the actions of civil society both in Zimbabwe and throughout Southern Africa in support of a free, democratic and socially just Zimbabwe.  Civil society must continue to play an important role in Zimbabwe given the critical need for “institutions that can referee between the state and the people.”  Groups need to pay special attention to:
   1. Developing a human rights framework within the country.
   2. Building and strengthening systems of accountability.
   3. Capacity building for civic groups and strengthening their autonomy.  International groups should continue to give priority to people-to-people solidarity, supporting organic people-driven organizations, particularly those that are working to ensure that Zimbabwe’s future economic engagement is based on terms defined by the people.  Afro descendants, in particular, need to show more visible support for the people of Zimbabwe and their self-selected political processes.  
4. The international community should continue to provide support that addresses Zimbabwe and the region’s humanitarian needs. 

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